Just a quick observation -- Mark Steyn, who brings more verve to opinion writing than anyone I can think of (and I say this though I as often as not disagree with him) offered a rather gloomy forecast for the future of Europe. I think he's wrong. Steyn wrote:
...Europe will be almost wholly dependent on the Muslim world for immigration - and one of the features of super-tolerant anything-goes post-Christian Europe is that it radicalises hitherto moderate Muslims. Look at the number of Islamist terrorists who are creatures of the Euro-Canadian welfare systems - Richard Reid the shoe bomber, Zac Moussaoui, Ahmed Ressam, even Mohammed Atta’s political character was formed in large part by his time in Germany. A senior Dutch cabinet minister told me in 2003 that what really scared him was that young Dutch Muslims were more Islamist and less assimilated than the grandparents who’d arrived in the early Seventies.
There are two likely longterm outcomes of all this:
a) Europe will simply become Muslim, as is already happening in secondary Scandinavian and Benelux cities;
b) New opportunist political movements will take advantage of the situation and of the silence of the centre-left EU political establishment, as is already happening in France, Belgium, Holland, Austria, Germany, Denmark. Europeans will see their declining economic fortunes, increasing crime, unaffordable welfare systems, etc, within the context of their demographic transformation, and some will react in the traditional European way - ie, violence, massive destabilisation, etc. Will this work in the long run? I doubt it. Like the “Take Back Vermont” campaign of five years ago, once you’re talking about taking it back you’ve already lost it.
One of the first posts on paleo Ideofact (incidentally, I didn't remark it at the time, but I've passed another anniversary) dealt with a passage from an F. Scott Fitzgerald novel:
F. Scott Fitzgerald, in The Great Gatsby, describes a similar book, in a conversation at the home of Pat’s namesake, Tom Buchanan:
“Civilization’s going to pieces,” broke out Tom violently. “I’ve gotten to be a terrible pessimist about things. Have you read ‘The Rise of the Coloured Empires’ by this man Goddard?”
“Why no,” I answered, rather surprised by his tone.
“Well, it’s a fine book and everyone ought to read it. The idea is that if we don’t look out the white race will be – will be utterly submerged. It’s all scientific stuff; it’s been proved.”
“Tom’s getting very profound,” Daisy said with an expression of unthoughtful sadness. “He reads deep books with long words in them. What was that word we—"
“Well, these books are all scientific,” insisted Tom, glancing at her impatiently. “This fellow has worked out the whole thing. It’s up to us who are the dominant race to watch out or these other races will have control of things.”
“We’ve got to beat them down,” whispered Daisy, winking ferociously at the fervent sun.
“You ought to live in California—" began Ms. Baker but Tom interrupted her by shifting heavily in his chair.
“This idea is that we’re Nordics. I am and you are and you are and—" After an infinitesimal hesitation he included Daisy with a slight nod and she winked at me again, “—and we’ve produced all the things that go to make civilization—oh, science and art and all that. Do you see?”
Fitzgerald didn’t invent Goddard; in 1920 Scribner’s (Fitzgerald’s publisher) issued a book called The Rising Tide of Color by a Harvard professor named Lothrop Stoddard. Like Buchanan, Stoddard looks to demography when issuing his clarion call:
Such is the ethnic make-up of that world of color which, as already seen, outnumbers the white world two to one. That is a formidable ratio, and its significance is heightened by the fact that this ratio seems destined to shift still further in favor of color. There can be no doubt that at present the colored races are increasing very much faster than the white. Treating the primary race-stocks as units, it would appear that whites tend to double in eighty years, yellows and browns in sixty years, blacks in forty years. The whites are thus the slowest breeders, and they will undoubtedly become slower still, since section after section of the white race is revealing that lowered birth rate which in France has reached the extreme of a stationary population.
I noted at the time that Stoddard was apoplectic about the Japanese, who, his demographic calculations showed, were going to take over the world. Isn't it strange how times change? Much as I loved Gary Numan, I have to say I can imagine living any other way.
If you're a Muslim Arab immigrant, and you have a choice of Free Iraq or Free France, which do you choose? Free Lebanon or free Luxemborg? Free Egypt or free Germany? We're not there yet, but we may well be within the next two or three or five or ten years. What happens to European immigration then? Well, maybe those Japanese hordes Stoddard was so worried about will materialize...